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Will Housing Prices Soar By 2014?

lcarmichael — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 14:00:56 +0000

Daily Real Estate News | Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Real estate economists and analysts are increasingly optimistic that the housing market will have a dramatic recovery in the next two years, according to results of a new semi-annual survey of 38 real estate economists and analysts conducted by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate.

The economists predict that the national average for home prices will stop falling by this year and a subsequent turnaround will occur. By next year, they project that home prices will begin to rise by 2 percent, and then get a larger boost of 3.5 percent by 2014. The economists also predict that housing starts will nearly double by next year.

They also foresee rental prices continuing to increase for all property types, ranging from 0.8 percent to 5 percent.

The economists’ predictions were made on assumptions that the economy would continue to strengthen, including a larger drop in unemployment.

“While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years,” says Patrick L. Phillips, ULI chief executive officer. “These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

Source: “Real Estate Will Rock in 2014,” RISMedia (March 31, 2012)

If you are in need of an owner’s representative for building your own dream home in Aspen or Snowmass, Colorado or simply need to know how to go about building or remodeling a house as an absentee owner in the Aspen area or the surrounding communities of Snowmass, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek or Basalt, Colorado, we are happy to assist! Please give us a call today at 970.948.8258

New-Home Inventory Shrinks to Record Lows

lcarmichael — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:00:29 +0000

Inventory of new homes on the market shrank to its lowest point on record in January, marking a 5.6-month supply at the current sales pace, the Commerce Department reports.

With fewer homes available, the price of new homes increased slightly last month. The median price for a new home ticked up slightly at 0.3 percent to $217,100, which is the highest level since October.

However, January sales of single-family homes mostly stayed falt in January, falling less than 1 percent last month compared to the previous month. New-home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 321,000 units.

New-home sales were up 3.5 percent compared to the same time last year, the Commerce Department reported.

“This is indicative of the incremental, steady progress that the market is making toward recovery in conjunction with modest economic and job growth,” said David Crowe, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist. “Increasingly, potential buyers are feeling better about their financial situation and their ability to buy a home, but the challenges posed by tight credit conditions and appraisal issues continue to slow that process.”

Regionally, the Midwest saw the biggest decline in new home sales in January, a 24.5 percent drop in sales followed by a 10.6 percent drop in sales in the West. On the other hand, the Northeast posted an 11.1 percent gain in new home sales in January, and the South saw a 9.3 percent increase.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Multifamily Housing Demand to Outpace Production

lcarmichael — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 13:45:32 +0000

By Erica Christoffer, Multimedia Web Producer, REALTOR® Magazine

Developers of multifamily homes should be relishing in the fact that demand is incredibly strong. But in reality, developers are struggling to build new apartments because financing is so hard to come by.

The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting the construction of 208,000 multifamily residences in 2012, which is well below the 350,000 units needed to maintain balance in the market, according to Sharon Dworkin Bell, NAHB senior vice president for multifamily and 50-plus housing.

Bell, who spoke on a panel during the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando last week, said that the demand for new apartments will only continue to grow as the economy improves and job seekers find employment.

What’s more, the young adult population entering the job market today is one of the largest in U.S. history, which is creating even more demand for multifamily real estate, said Ron Witten, president of Witten Advisors, a market research firm that works with multifamily developers.

“As an industry, we can’t keep up with this demand right now. This is likely to put inflationary pressure on rents, resulting in higher rents for consumers,” Witten said.

The multifamily market suffered a serious slowdown in production from 2008 to 2010, and now the lack of credit to finance the development of new apartments is likely to cause a supply and demand imbalance, according to the NAHB panelists.

“Credit restrictions are so tight that even developers with a strong balance sheet and reputation are having difficulty,” said developer W. Dean Henry, president of Legacy Partners Residential in Foster City, Calif., and chair of NAHB’s Multifamily Leadership Board.

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke also touched on credit issues during his speech at the International Builders’ Show Friday. He called on lenders to “find ways to maintain prudent lending standards while serving creditworthy borrowers.”

In a market report released in late 2011, NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun warned that if new multifamily construction doesn’t ramp up, the rise in rent costs could potentially approach 7 percent over the next two years. This creates another obstacle for renters trying to save for a downpayment to purchase a home.

In fact, between 2001 and 2009 the number of renters paying more than 30 percent of their incomes for rent and tenant-paid utilities jumped from 41.2 percent to 48.7 percent, and those paying more than half their incomes for housing climbed from 20.7 percent to 26.1 percent, according to a report released last summer by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing studies.

Overall, the implication of multifamily housing demand outpacing production is a continued delay of the housing recovery.

Foreclosures Pick Up Pace, Banks Work Through Glut

lcarmichael — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:00:23 +0000

Foreclosures increased again in January as banks continued to work through a large backlogs of defaulting loans in their books, RealtyTrac reports. The number of foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions — increased 3 percent from December to January.

However, the numbers were significantly down compared to one year earlier, RealtyTrac reports.

Last month, one in every 624 households received a foreclosure filing — a drop of 19 percent compared to January 2011.

Banks had slowed their pace of processing foreclosures last year following a robo-signing scandal, in which banks were accused of approving foreclosure documents without proper reviews. Banks have changed some of their methods in processing foreclosures. Also, the $25 billion foreclosure settlement, announced last week, among the nation’s five largest banks and state attorneys general is expected to lead to a pick up in the pace of foreclosures.

The “frozen up foreclosure process is beginning to thaw,” Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac, said in a statement. For example, Florida had a 14 percent increase in foreclosure filings in January compared to a year earlier.

Many housing experts view an increase in foreclosures as an important step for the housing market to recover in clearing the glut of foreclosed homes on the market. Foreclosures have hampered home prices in many markets.

Will the Real Estate Market Heat Up This Spring?

lcarmichael — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:00:33 +0000

The spring season usually brings an increase in buying and selling to the real estate market, and housing experts are mostly optimistic that this spring will be even better than recent years.

Some signs are already there: Housing inventories are declining, housing affordability is at record highs, mortgage rates are at all-time lows, and the job market is improving.

Existing-home sales have been edging up in recent months, and for-sale housing inventories were at nearly 2.4 million units in December, reaching its lowest point since 2005, according to National Association of REALTORS® data.

NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says home prices are beginning to stabilize in many markets.

Also, NAR’s Housing Affordability Index is at its highest level since the 1970s, which indicates that for the average family housing is very affordable.

The National Association of Home Builders is also predicting an improvement this spring among the new-home sector. NAHB is predicting that home sales will increase 18 percent this year, that’s after facing their lowest on record in 2011.

However, threats to a housing recovery still loom this spring. Strict mortgage lending is keeping some buyers on the sidelines, and foreclosures continue to put downward pressure on overall home prices in many markets.

“The signals are a little hard to extrapolate, but ultimately by the end of this year we should see the housing market on more solid footing,” says Celia Chen, senior housing economist with Moody’s Analytics. “So an improvement but off of very, very weak activity.”

Source: “Real Estate: A Buy or Bust This Spring Selling Season?” Investor’s Business Daily

Builders Prepare to Work on New Developments in 2012

lcarmichael — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:57:31 +0000

Although 2011 was among the slowest years ever for single-family construction starts, observers say builders across the country are preparing to commence work on new developments.

The National Association of Home Builders’ Chief Economist David Crowe says 2011 starts came in around 425,000, down from the previous low of 442,000 in 2009, with declines in consumer confidence helping to pinch the number of groundbreakings. According to Census data, single-family homes account for just 2.3 percent of the 9 percent increase in starts in November.

Meritage Homes CEO Steve Hilton does not expect construction activity to return to 2005 and 2006 levels, but he does expect a pick-up this year and for starts to reach 800,000 to 1 million during the next few years. The company will break ground on homes in Tampa in the first quarter, moving to the Sunshine State to take advantage of what Hilton expects will be one of the strongest housing markets in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Toll Bros. is setting its sights on Dallas, Houston, and the Washington, D.C., to Boston corridor, hoping to capitalize on pent-up demand as consumer confidence rises. Other builders ramping up production include Lennar, focusing on the Pacific Northwest; and Pulte Group, which plans projects in northern Virginia, Texas, and the Carolinas.

Zelman & Associates CEO Ivy Zelman says builders must compete with a glut of existing homes; and they are pulling back on square footage, options, and upgrades to make their offerings more affordable. She says an increase in household formation, a low supply of new homes, more tenants seeking to buy as rents rise, stabilizing home prices, and investors looking to buy single-family homes to rent out have combined to give a boost to the new-home market.

Source: “Will Homebuilders Dig Out of Their Holes This Year?” Investor’s Business Daily (01/06/12)

If you are in need of an owner’s representative for building your own dream home in Aspen or Snowmass, Colorado or simply need to know how to go about building a house as an absentee owner in the Aspen area or the surrounding communities of Snowmass, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek or Basalt, Colorado, we are happy to assist! Please give us a call today at 970.948.8258 for a FREE consultation

Construction Spending Rises, Hopeful Sign for Economy

lcarmichael — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:08:23 +0000

Construction spending on single-family homes, apartments, and remodeling projects increased in November, helping the economy finish 2011 strong and start 2012 with yet another sign that points to an economy finally in recovery mode, the Associated Press reports. The news joins other recent reports that show consumer confidence is up, manufacturing activity is pushing higher, and the unemployment rate is at a three-and-a-half-year low.

Construction projects in November increased 1.2 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $807.1 billion, the largest increase since August. Yet, the number is still about half the $1.5 trillion pace that economists consider healthy for the sector.

“While spending on single-family construction still remains extremely depressed, it has now increased for six straight months and looks consistent with other indicators signaling some improvement in the housing market,” Daniel Silver, an economist with JPMorgan Chase, told the Associated Press.

In November, spending on home improvement projects soared 9.5 percent, the Commerce Department reports. Single-family home construction spending increased 1.5 percent, and apartment building spending increased 1.3 percent in November.

Source: “Higher Manufacturing Activity, More Construction Spending Shows Growth Accelerating,” Associated Press (Jan. 3, 2012)

Which Home Improvement Projects Offer the Best Returns?

lcarmichael — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:03:44 +0000

Daily Real Estate News |

When it comes to remodeling, exterior replacement projects have routinely rewarded home owners with more bang for their buck. This year is no different: REALTORS^® recently rated many exterior improvements as among the most valuable home investment projects as part of the 2011-12 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report.“This year’s Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report shows the value of putting your home’s best façade forward, so to speak,” said National Association of REALTORS^®President Moe Veissi. “Inexpensive exterior replacement projects are not only crucial to a home’s regular upkeep, but are also expected to recoup close to 70 percent of costs. Specific exterior projects such as siding, window and door replacements are part of regular home maintenance, so many homeowners are already undertaking them. These projects also do not require expensive materials and they have the added bonus of instantly adding curb appeal.”HouseLogic.com, NAR’s consumer Web site, includes dozens of remodeling projects, from kitchens and baths to siding replacements, which indicate the recouped value of the project based on a national average. According to the Cost vs. Value, seven of the top 10 most cost-effective projects nationally in terms of value recouped are exterior replacement projects. REALTORS^®judged an upscale fiber-cement siding replacement as the project expected to return the most money, with an estimated 78 percent of costs recouped upon resale.Two additional siding replacement projects were in the top 10, including foam-backed vinyl siding, expected to return 69.6 percent of costs, and upscale vinyl siding, expected to recoup 69.5 percent of costs. Three door replacements were also among the top exterior replacement projects. The steel entry door replacement is the least expensive project in the report, costing little more than $1,200 on average and expected to recoup 73 percent of costs.The upscale garage door replacement jumped seven spots to number six this year, primarily due to the average cost of the project declining more than 15 percent nationally. The upscale and midrange garage door replacement projects are expected to return more than 71 percent of costs. One window replacement project — upscale vinyl — rounded out the last exterior replacement project in the top 10, expected to recoup 69.1 percent of costs.The 2011-12 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report compares construction costs with resale values for 35 midrange and upscale remodeling projects comprising additions, remodels, and replacements in 80 markets across the country. Data are grouped in nine U.S. regions, following the divisions established by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the 14th consecutive year that the report, which is produced by Remodelingmagazine publisher Hanley Wood LLC, was completed in cooperation with NAR.Source: NARIf you are in need of an owner’s representative for building your own dream home in Aspen or Snowmass, Colorado or simply need to know how to go about building a house as an absentee owner in the Aspen area or the surrounding communities of Snowmass, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek or Basalt, Colorado, we are happy to assist! Please give us a call today at 970.948.8258 for a FREE consultation

Pending Home Sales Jump in October

lcarmichael — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 14:00:26 +0000

Washington, DC, November 30, 2011

Pending home sales rose strongly in October and remain above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, surged 10.4 percent to 93.3 in October from 84.5 in September and is 9.2 percent above October 2010 when it stood at 85.5. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said improved contract activity is a hopeful sign. “Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years. We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions,” he said.

“Many consumers are recognizing that home buyers in the past two years have had one of the lowest default rates in history. Moreover, continued inventory declines are another healthy sign for the housing market,” Yun added.

The PHSI in the Northeast surged 17.7 percent to 71.3 in October and is 3.4 percent above October 2010. In the Midwest the index jumped 24.1 percent to 88.7 in October and remains 13.2 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 8.6 percent in October to an index of 99.5 and are 9.7 percent higher than October 2010. In the West the index slipped 0.3 percent to 105.5 in October but is 8.1 percent above a year ago.

“Although contract signings are up, not all contracts lead to closings. Many potential home buyers inadvertently hurt their credit scores and chances of getting a mortgage through easily averted actions, such as cancelling an old credit line while taking on a new one,” Yun said. “Such actions could unwittingly prevent buyers from obtaining a mortgage if their credit score is close the margins of qualifying, or they might get a loan but with less favorable terms.”

NAR encourages consumers to be aware of their credit score and actions which could hurt or enhance it. HouseLogic.com, the association’s consumer website devoted to all aspects of homeownership, offers tips for improving credit scores at http://buyandsell.houselogic.com/articles/7-tips-improving-your-credit/.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The previous article was furnished by The National Association of Realtors®, click her now for more.

New-Home Construction Bounces Back, Soars 9.3%

lcarmichael — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 17:11:09 +0000

New-home construction and building permits — a future gauge of construction — surged last month, slowly helping to pull the new-home market out of one of its worst years for home building.

Builders broke ground on more homes in November, a 9.3 percent increase over October, reaching the highest level since April 2010, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Year-over-year, new-home starts were up 24.3 percent in November.

Home construction increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 homes in November. However, while it’s an improvement, the rate is still below the 1.2 million home pace that economists consider healthy for the new-home sector.

November’s increase was mostly driven by construction of multi-family homes with at least two units, which soared 25.3 percent in November. Construction of single-family homes increased 2.3 percent for the month.

Building permits jumped 5.7 percent in November, the highest increase since March 2010, with the increase mostly driven by apartment construction permits.

Builders Feeling More Confident

Meanwhile, for the third consecutive month, builder confidence in the new-home market continued to edge up, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. The index is at its highest point since May 2010.

While the index reached 21 in December, it is still far below 50, a reading which indicates more builders view conditions as good rather than poor. The index hasn’t reached that point since the housing boom in April 2006.

“While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, said in a statement. “However, the difficulties that both builders and buyers continue to experience in accessing credit for new homes are holding back potential sales even in areas where economic conditions are improving.”

Source: “Apartment Construction Spurs 9.3% Ju mp in Hou sing Starts, But Level Remains Low,” Associated Press (Dec. 20, 2011); “U.S. Nov. Housing Starts +9.3% to 685K; Consensus +0.3%,” Dow Jones International News (Dec. 20, 2011); and National Association of Home Builders